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Hope seen once the omicron wave increases global immunity

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Health officials around the world are hoping that the decline of the Omicron wave can give way to a new, more manageable stage of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the United States, the number of cases is increasing and declining rapidly, following the patterns seen in the United Kingdom and South Africa, and researchers predict a period of low spread in many countries by the end of March. Although the number of deaths in the United States (currently 2,000 daily) is still increasing, new hospitalizations are beginning to decline and the number of deaths is expected to continue to decline.

The promising trends after two years of coronavirus misery have resulted in a markedly hopeful tone from health professionals. The rosy predictions used to collapse, but this time they are backed by what is called Omicron’s silver lining. Highly contagious mutants leave very high levels of immunity.

On Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci talked about ABC “this week” about the “best scenario” where COVID-19 falls to a manageable level so that the United States can “return to some degree of normality.”

And on Monday, the World Health Organization predicted the end of this year’s pandemic “emergency phase” and issued a statement stating that Omicron variants “provide plausible hope for stabilization and normalization.” ..

Dr. Hans Kluge, Fauci and WHO’s regional director of Europe, warned that new variants are likely to emerge, but vaccination, new drug therapies, and rising tests and masks make the world more devastating. As Fauci said, the virus is “essentially integrated into the common respiratory infections we have learned to live with.”

In the United States, the average number of new cases is very high at 680,000 per day, down from a record high of over 800,000 a little over a week ago.

The most abrupt decline is seen in the US locations where Omicron first attacked. New cases in the northeast have plummeted, but other states (Arizona, Texas, Oregon, Kansas, North Dakota, etc.) are still awaiting relief.

There are also fewer new hospitalizations in the United States for patients with confirmed COVID-19. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, they average about 20,000 per day, down about 7% from the previous week.

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These numbers include patients who go to the hospital for other reasons and test positive. However, even after considering these accidental infections, this trend can be expected.

One of the influential models predicts that almost all countries will overcome the Omicron wave by mid-March, including China and other countries that have adopted a “zero COVID” policy. Waves leave high levels of immunity from both infection and vaccination and can lead to low levels of infection for weeks or months.

“What will we end up at the end of this?” Dr. Christopher Murray of the University of Washington said. Attention Institute for Health Metrics Model.. “We will have the highest level of global immunity we have seen in a pandemic.”

The model estimates that 57% of the world’s population has already been infected with the virus at least once.

Another research group that combines several models and shares predictions with the White House predicts that infections in the United States will be significantly reduced by April unless new variants emerge that can avoid elevated immune levels. increase.

“It’s dangerous to forget that possibility, as we’ve captured before,” said Catriona Shay of Pennsylvania State University, the leader of the team that puts the model together.

She also said the predictions show that 16,000 to 98,000 Americans were dead before the end of the Omicron wave. The death toll in the United States is close to 870,000.

Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas, said: COVID-19 Modeling Consortium.

“There is still a lot of pain before Omicron carries out that course,” she said, but “it’s very plausible that Omicron will be a turning point in relation to this virus.”

Hope seen once the omicron wave increases global immunity Source link Hope seen once the omicron wave increases global immunity

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Highly contagious mutants leave very high levels of immunity.nOn Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci talked about ABC “this week” about the “best scenario” where COVID-19 falls to a manageable level so that the United States can “return to some degree of normality.”nAnd on Monday, the World Health Organization predicted the end of this year’s pandemic “emergency phase” and issued a statement stating that Omicron variants “provide plausible hope for stabilization and normalization.” ..nDr. Hans Kluge, Fauci and WHO’s regional director of Europe, warned that new variants are likely to emerge, but vaccination, new drug therapies, and rising tests and masks make the world more devastating. As Fauci said, the virus is “essentially integrated into the common respiratory infections we have learned to live with.”nIn the United States, the average number of new cases is very high at 680,000 per day, down from a record high of over 800,000 a little over a week ago.nThe most abrupt decline is seen in the US locations where Omicron first attacked. New cases in the northeast have plummeted, but other states (Arizona, Texas, Oregon, Kansas, North Dakota, etc.) are still awaiting relief.nThere are also fewer new hospitalizations in the United States for patients with confirmed COVID-19. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, they average about 20,000 per day, down about 7% from the previous week.nThese numbers include patients who go to the hospital for other reasons and test positive. However, even after considering these accidental infections, this trend can be expected.nOne of the influential models predicts that almost all countries will overcome the Omicron wave by mid-March, including China and other countries that have adopted a “zero COVID” policy. Waves leave high levels of immunity from both infection and vaccination and can lead to low levels of infection for weeks or months.n”What will we end up at the end of this?” Dr. Christopher Murray of the University of Washington said. Attention Institute for Health Metrics Model.. “We will have the highest level of global immunity we have seen in a pandemic.”nThe model estimates that 57% of the world’s population has already been infected with the virus at least once.nAnother research group that combines several models and shares predictions with the White House predicts that infections in the United States will be significantly reduced by April unless new variants emerge that can avoid elevated immune levels. increase.n”It’s dangerous to forget that possibility, as we’ve captured before,” said Catriona Shay of Pennsylvania State University, the leader of the team that puts the model together.nShe also said the predictions show that 16,000 to 98,000 Americans were dead before the end of the Omicron wave. 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